Melbourne’s Urban Edge Fuels Faster Growth than Sydney

Melbourne is set to outpace Sydney in long-term housing growth as it leverages more space for greenfield development, helping deliver the dream of detached homes near global city jobs - but this expansion could further strain infrastructure funding and planning. With Australia projected to swell by 14 million people by 2071, around 5 million will settle in Sydney and Melbourne alone, intensifying the need for smarter urban strategies.

At present, both cities are navigating the pressure of unprecedented urban growth. Australia's population could hit 39 million by 2071, based on mid-range estimates from the national statistics agency. That growth builds off decades of immigration, urban sprawl, and shifting demographics. Historically, Sydney and Melbourne absorbed large shares of this growth but Melbourne seems better positioned for the next round.

Melbourne, with a current population just over 5 million, is expected to gain another 3 million by 2071, driven by new housing developments across the city’s west, north, and southwest. Unlike Sydney, which faces geographic constraints and a more complex urban form, Melbourne’s flatter terrain and available land give it flexibility. This unique layout allows the city to offer more suburban homes within commuting distance of its economic core.

Sydney is projected to grow more slowly, adding 2.1 million people over the next 50 years to reach around 7.4 million. However, population density and rising infrastructure costs may limit its capacity to expand outward at scale. While Sydney plans to develop a 3-hub city model, connecting its harbour centre with Parramatta and the Western Sydney Aerotropolis, Melbourne can continue building outwards while staying economically connected.

Therefore, Melbourne appears better equipped to meet the long-term demand for family-style housing close to jobs, making it a more attractive destination for new arrivals. This growth pattern seems sustainable, but achieving it will still require careful urban design, infrastructure investment, and community planning to avoid future congestion and housing shortages.

Source: The Australian, ABS, Timeout