How long does it actually take for property prices to double?

Many Australians hope their property values will double every decade, but new analysis shows that’s not a guarantee. While some recent hotspots like Adelaide and Brisbane are on track to meet that goal by 2029, other cities, such as Melbourne, are far behind. As home prices rise unevenly and affordability hits record lows, the long-held belief in property as a get rich quick scheme is significantly under pressure.

For years, Australians have been told that real estate is the surest path to wealth. This is thanks to claims that prices typically double every seven to 10 years. But historic data paints a more complex picture. Property value growth has happened in irregular cycles since 1901, deeply influenced by economic events like the Great Depression, baby booms, high inflation and financial constraints. During some periods, it took up to 27 years for prices to double, the opposite of overnight success.

Recent figures show that since the pandemic began in 2020, national home prices have climbed 43.3%, falling short of the 100% needed by 2030 to maintain the decade-doubling timeline. Digging into the detail, cities like Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have surged by over 80%, making them more likely to hit the mark. However, Melbourne saw just a 16.2% increase in 5 years. For homeowners relying on the “property doubles in 10 years” rule, that’s a sobering reality, and proof that location matters more than broad averages. It’s not just about price trends though. Housing affordability is now at its worst level in over 30 years. A typical household can afford fewer homes than ever before, which puts downward pressure on prices and slows future growth. Although falling interest rates could improve the situation, the pace and depth of those declines will decide how much relief, if any, filters through to buyers.

Government policies aiming to help first-home buyers risk making things worse. Programs with low deposits may increase demand in certain segments, but without boosting housing supply, they could fuel home price inflation. Construction challenges ranging from high costs and labour shortages to long delays mean supply simply can’t keep up with demand. This mismatch looks set to persist and could hamper any real affordability improvements soon.

Property markets also differ dramatically between cities and even within them. While inner-city homes tend to hold value and grow steadily, outer suburbs and house-and-land packages can lag due to oversupply or infrastructure issues. Real estate isn't a one size fits all investment. But even with these hurdles, experts say that for those willing to take a long-term view, good property decisions can still build wealth over generations.

Source: The Australian, ABC, Property Update