Australia’s Tourism Recovery Delayed Until 2026

Australia is looking to rebuild momentum in its tourism sector through renewed international visitor campaigns. However, changes in global travel trends and a slow rebound from key overseas markets mean the industry is now unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels before 2026. The delay threatens earnings for tourism businesses that are already dealing with staffing shortages and unpredictable domestic demand.

Tourism in Australia has struggled to recover since the pandemic. According to a new report from Tourism Research Australia, short-term arrivals are still lagging behind 2019 levels by about 8.5%, while international holidaymakers are down by 19%. Recovery was previously forecast for 2025, but underperformance in markets like China and ongoing global conflicts have pushed this target back by another year.

Current travel behaviour is adding further pressure. Despite a weaker currency, Australians are booking overseas holidays in record numbers, which means more tourism spending is flowing out of the country rather than in. Meanwhile, marketing efforts like the $125 million “Come and Say G’Day” campaign are starting to gain some attention but have not yet restored visitor numbers to where they were before the pandemic. Airlines are also feeling the effects, with low seat occupancy on inbound routes from Europe and many parts of Asia.

Regional tourism operators are bearing the brunt of these challenges. Faced with inconsistent visitor demand, rising costs and fewer arrivals from major sources such as the US, UK and Japan, many businesses say targeted international promotion is becoming critical. Growth in tourism from countries like India and South Korea suggests that focused strategies can pay off.

The broader challenge for Australia’s tourism industry is maintaining global relevance. There is still strong international interest in immersive experiences and local culture, but Australia must strengthen its marketing in key regions. If campaigns are better refined and expanded, the sector could still see meaningful growth in the years to come. For now though, full recovery remains out of reach.

Source: The Australian, Tourism Research Australia, WTTC