Australia’s Immigration Declines from Record Highs

Australia’s net overseas migration has dropped significantly, falling 32% from its post pandemic peak. Despite this decrease, both major political parties are struggling to meet their long-term immigration targets. A surge in international students and strong job opportunities continue to drive higher than expected migration numbers, making it difficult to achieve the promised reductions.

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that 379,000 people entered Australia in the year leading up to September. This is a sharp decrease from the record high of 555,798 arrivals in the previous year. However, experts suggest that further cuts planned for 2025-26 and 2026-27 may not materialise unless unemployment rises significantly, as Australia’s robust job market continues to attract workers.

Plans to curb migration face hurdles, particularly as international student numbers remain high. In February alone, around 200,000 students arrived, defying expectations that stricter visa rules would slow the influx. Although attempts to cap student numbers were previously blocked by opposition parties, new measures are being explored, including limiting enrolments as a proportion of total student numbers.

Both major parties have pledged to bring down immigration as part of efforts to ease housing shortages and infrastructure demands. However, concrete strategies to achieve these reductions remain vague. The opposition has proposed slashing net overseas migration to as low as 150,000, largely through cuts to student visas and permanent migration, but the feasibility of these measures is still in question.

With a strong labour market continuing to attract workers, particularly from New Zealand, meeting future immigration reduction targets will be challenging. Experts argue that a sustainable, long term policy on student and temporary visas is essential for effective migration management. Until then, achieving significant cuts without economic trade offs remains uncertain.

Source: Australian Financial Review, ABS, Australian Broker